21-22

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Apr 9, 2022

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Today, cold temperatures, cloudy skies and no more than a couple inches of new snow make avalanches unlikely. If you plan to travel in steep terrain follow safe travel protocols in case you find an isolated unstable slope. Ride one at a time on steep slopes and carry proper avalanche rescue gear. Before skiing or riding steep slopes, dig a couple feet into the snow and look for buried weak layers, unstable drifts of snow, or signs that the snowpack did not refreeze well.</p>

<p>Yesterday’s sunshine and hot temperatures melted the top of the snowpack on most slopes and made it wet and weak. Skiers in the Beartooths, outside the advisory area, watched a natural wet loose avalanche relatively early in the day (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/26462"><strong><u>details</u></strong>…;). Today the snowpack will be mostly re-frozen and stable. In places that temperatures were slower to cool or are still above freezing, watch for a wet and unsupportable snow surface which indicates you might be able to trigger a wet snow avalanche. Wet snow hazard will decrease today with temperatures near freezing and below. There may be an isolated instability on the highest, shady slopes where it was cold enough that the upper snowpack stayed mostly dry yesterday. In these areas watch for slabs of drifted snow that formed earlier in the week (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/scotch-bonnet-avalanche"><strong>…;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/wolverine-avalanche"><strong><u>p…;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/cornice-triggered-avalanche-beehi…;), and look for weak snow buried 1-3 feet deep.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Avalanches are unlikely today, and the&nbsp;avalanche danger is LOW.</p>

<p>Our last daily forecast will be issued tomorrow. During the rest of April we will issue weather and avalanche updates Monday and Friday. Please continue sending us your observations. You can submit them via our website, email (mtavalanche@gmail.com), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Natural wet loose Avalanche, East Rosebud

Other place
Out of Advisory Area
Code
WL-N
Latitude
45.65530
Longitude
-110.55800
Notes

From obs 4/8/22: "today my partners and I witnessed a natural avalanche in the Excalibur Couloir in the East Rosebud drainage. This D1.5/2 slide started from hangfire not visible from the couloir that created a wet slide after being in the sun for about 2-2.5 hours. No one was caught or injured thankfully... "

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Wet loose-snow avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
Problem Type
Wet Snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

East Rosebud Avalanche

Date
Activity
Skiing

Know it's not in the advisory areas at all, but today my partners and I witnessed a natural avalanche in the Excalibur Couloir in the East Rosebud drainage. This D1.5/2 slide started from hangfire not visible from the couloir that created a wet slide after being in the sun for about 2-2.5 hours. No one was caught or injured thankfully but definitely a spooky experience and relevant to the forecast this morning when it discussed not discounting the danger of loose wet avalanches from the new snow especially in consequential terrain. Despite an early start, those two hours in the sun at that aspect heated the snow and caused it to slide so much quicker than expected which I think in part might be due to a pretty superficial freeze out there last night. Again, know it's not super relevant to where ya'll forecast for but due to the sheer warmth everywhere today maybe others had similar experiences or could learn from it! Unfortunately, no photos since we were more concerned about getting out of there safely more than anything. 

Region
Out of Advisory Area
Observer Name
Haylee Darby

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Fri Apr 8, 2022

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Wet avalanches are the primary hazard today. Mountain temperatures are already near or above freezing this morning and they’re just going to climb higher today. Thin crusts that formed overnight will break down quickly as temperatures rise. As the snow surface gets wet, you’ll be able to trigger wet loose avalanches in the snow that fell earlier in the week. Alex and I found these conditions beginning to develop near Cooke City yesterday and with temperatures 10 or more degrees warmer today, wet avalanches will be even more of a concern&nbsp;(<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqwSknw4e_E"><strong><u>video</u></stro…;). The snow surface becoming damp and roller balls or pinwheels running downhill below you are clear signs that the wet snow avalanche danger is on the rise. These conditions will develop after just a few hours of sunshine. Wet snow avalanches will generally not break deeper than the snow that fell earlier in the week, which means that the more new snow there is, the larger and more dangerous these loose slides will be. Don’t discount the danger of loose snow avalanches, they can entrain a surprising amount of snow and easily push you into rocks or trees or bury you in a gully.</p>

<p>Avalanches breaking in dry snow do remain possible, particularly on slopes with wind drifted snow from earlier in the week (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/scotch-bonnet-avalanche"><strong>…;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/wolverine-avalanche"><strong><u>p…;). If you’re seeking out shady, high elevation slopes, watch for cracking wind drifts and dig down to make sure you don’t get surprised by unstable weak layers 1-3 ft deep (<a href="https://youtu.be/8UnSYrlAAl4"><strong><u>video</u></strong></a&gt;). Also, don’t forget about small, low elevation slopes you’ll have to cross in the afternoon on the way back to the trailhead. It’s easy to get caught off guard by these low elevation slopes that don’t pose much of a hazard during typically winter conditions.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The avalanche danger is MODERATE today.</p>

<p>Our last daily forecast will be issued on Sunday. During the rest of April we will issue weather and avalanche updates Monday and Friday. Please continue sending us your observations. You can submit them via our website, email (mtavalanche@gmail.com), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

Wind Slabs in Beehive and Cooke City

Beehive Basin
Northern Madison
Code
SS-N-R2-D2-I
Elevation
10000
Aspect Range
S-E
Latitude
45.34070
Longitude
-111.39100
Notes

Several wind slab avalanches were seen in Beehive and near Cooke City that likely broke during on just after the storm on 4/5-4/6. These slides broke in freshly wind drifted snow (6" to 2ft deep) and ran several hundred vertical feet. 

Number of slides
3
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
2
D size
2
Bed Surface
I - Interface between new and old snow
Problem Type
Wind-Drifted Snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

From obs 4/7/22: "We observed a small cornice triggered avalanche (R1-D1.5) from a wind-loaded gully off Peak 10602 that likely slid during or soon after the recent storm cycle. The slide had a crown of approx. 8-15in, and ran ~300ft. ... We also observed several other instances of recent cornice-fall in the basin."

Northern Madison, 2022-04-08